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Letters from the Manager

Letter from the Manager — Nov 2025

EQUITY
(Long Short, inception on 02.28.23; and Total Return under the new mandate, inception on 07.01.24)

The Springs Equity Hedge FIC FIM (Long Short) returned +1.78% (vs. CDI of 1.05%), accumulating a return of +19.10% year-to-date (vs. CDI of 12.95%), and +39.87% since inception (vs. CDI of 38.71% over the same period). The fund presents an annualized volatility of 4.03%.

The Springs Total Return FIC FIM (Long Biased) returned +4.35% (vs. IPCA + IMA-B Yield of 0.70%), accumulating a return of +26.77% year-to-date (vs. IPCA + IMA-B Yield of 11.42%), and since the new mandate inception (07.01.24) +26.74% (vs. IPCA + IMA-B Yield of 17.55% over the same period). The fund presents an annualized volatility, since the new mandate, of 12.59%.

November was a month of consolidation in global markets, with the MSCI ACWI virtually flat (-0.1% in USD) and strong sector dispersion. In the U.S., the S&P 500 advanced 0.1% while the Nasdaq declined 1.6%, amid a correction in technology stock prices and discussions about the pace of monetary easing. The 10-year yield closed down nearly 4bps, while Fed statements led the market to price in a higher probability of a rate cut in December.

In emerging markets, the MSCI EM fell approximately 2.5%, pressured by Asia. In Latin America, Brazil significantly outperformed the region, with the Ibovespa up +6.4% in BRL for the month (+32.3% YTD; +53.5% in USD). The advance was supported by strong corporate earnings and a flattening of the yield curve.

Domestic cyclical sectors, particularly construction and retail, posted the largest gains.Brazilian inflation maintained a favorable trajectory: the November IPCA-15 rose 0.20% (4.5% over 12 months), reinforcing the perception of elevated real interest rates and anticipating bets on Selic rate cuts in 2026. The DI curve flattened significantly, benefiting domestic interest rate-sensitive assets. The Brazilian real appreciated against the dollar during the period, moving to the R$5.33 range, tracking a weaker dollar globally.We view the U.S. monetary cycle, currently in an easing process, and the expectation of the start of the Brazilian cycle (currently priced between January and March 2026) as the main drivers for the domestic market over the next 6 to 12 months. The fund's strategy remained focused on quality companies with strong cash flow generation and low leverage.

Equity Hedge
During the month, the fund returned 1.78%. From a sector perspective, utilities, agribusiness, and healthcare stood out positively. On the other hand, the steel, mining, and construction sectors were the main detractors. The largest portfolio allocations are in the consumer, utilities, and technology sectors.

Total Return
During the month, the fund returned 4.35%. From a sector perspective, agribusiness, utilities, and banking stood out positively. On the other hand, the construction sector was the main detractor. The largest portfolio allocations are in the banking, utilities, and consumer sectors.

Letter from the Manager — Oct 2025

Equity Hedge — October 2025
The month of October continued with a positive trend for global assets. The S&P 500 had a total return of 2.34%, while the Nasdaq returned 4.72%, reflecting a positive earnings season and the expectation of the continuation of the monetary easing cycle in the USA. The yield on the 10-year U.S. bond closed 7 bps, ending the month at 4.08%. In emerging markets, the positive performance was equally significant. The MSCI EM rose 4.19%, benefiting from the continued flow of capital, a trend expected in weakening cycles of the dollar. The Ibovespa followed the global trend and ended the month at an all-time high, with an increase of 2.26%, supported by the steel and mining, banking and capital goods sectors. We understand the American monetary cycle, in the process of easing, and the expected start of the Brazilian cycle (currently priced between January and March 2026), as the main drivers of the domestic market in the next 6 to 12 months. Historically, interest cut periods in the USA have been accompanied by a weaker dollar and investment flow to riskier assets. During October, the foreign flow in shares was negative at R$1.4 billion despite the reversal movement during the last week of the month when it was positive at R$5.9 billion. In 2025, the flow accumulated R$25.1bi during the month the fund had a performance of 0.96%. From a sectoral perspective, the Banks, Infrastructure and Utilities sectors stood out positively. On the other hand, the Real Estate sector was the main detractor. The fund's strategy continued to focus on quality companies, with good cash generation and low leverage, in addition to specific opportunities in unlisted names with valuation potential. The largest allocations in the portfolio are in the Utilities, Consumer and Banking sectors.

Total return — October 2025
The month of October continued with a positive trend for global assets. The S&P 500 had a total return of 2.34%, while the Nasdaq returned 4.72%, reflecting a positive earnings season and the expectation of the continuation of the monetary easing cycle in the USA. The yield on the 10-year U.S. bond closed 7 bps, ending the month at 4.08%. In emerging markets, the positive performance was equally significant. MSCI EM rose 4.19%, benefiting from continued capital flow, a trend expected in weakening dollar cycles. The Ibovespa followed the global trend and ended the month at an all-time high, with an increase of 2.26%, supported by the steel and mining, banking and capital goods sectors. We understand the American monetary cycle, in the process of easing, and the expected start of the Brazilian cycle (currently priced between January and March 2026), as the main drivers of the domestic market in the next 6 to 12 months. Historically, interest cut periods in the USA have been accompanied by a weaker dollar and investment flow to riskier assets. During October, the foreign flow in shares was negative at R$1.4 billion despite the reversal movement during the last week of the month when it was positive at R$5.9 billion. In 2025, the flow accumulated R$25.1bi during the month the fund performed 1.49%. From a sectoral perspective, the Metals, Utilities and Banking sectors stood out positively. On the other hand, the Real Estate sector was the main detractor. The fund's strategy continued to focus on quality companies, with good cash generation and low leverage, in addition to specific opportunities in unlisted names with valuation potential. The largest allocations in the portfolio are in the Utilities, Consumer and Banking sectors.

Letter from the Manager — Sep 2025

The month of September was positive for global assets, especially for emerging markets. The start of a new monetary easing cycle in the USA supported a greater global risk appetite, resulting in a return of 7.2% of MSCI Emerging Markets and 6.5% of MSCI Latam, in dollars. Developed markets continued with an upward trend, renewing historic highs. The S&P returned 3.6% and the Nasdaq 5.7%. In Brazil, the Ibovespa increased 3.4% in reais (5.6% in dollars), reaching historic highs. On the macroeconomic side, Copom kept Selic at 15%, while the hawkest tone consolidated, by the hour, the expectation of the first cut for 2026 (the current price of the curve points to something between January and March 2026). In the political field, the conviction of former president Jair Bolsonaro and diplomatic tensions with the United States, after the imposition of sanctions on the relatives of the Supreme Court minister, brought new elements of uncertainty, although with no immediate impact on the direction of the markets. We understand the American monetary cycle, in the process of loosening (and the expectation of the start of the Brazilian cycle), as the biggest drivers of the domestic market in the next 6 to 12 months. Historically, interest cut periods in the USA have been accompanied by a weaker dollar and investment flow to riskier assets. The highest global risk appetite can also be seen in the foreign exchange flow, which totaled R$4.8 billion in September and R$26 billion in 2025. During the month, the main returns came from the financial, utilities and infrastructure sectors. The main performance detractors were food and beverages and commodities. An important part of the month's return came from the investment in Klarna, which held its IPO in the USA. Investment in unlisted companies with strong appreciation potential is an important characteristic of Springs Capital's products and the result of a structured investment process that constantly seeks unconventional ideas inside and outside Brazil. We continue to prioritize solid, under-leveraged companies with the capacity to cross adverse scenarios, while seeking micro-specific opportunities. During September, we held the highest exposures in the financial, utilities and consumer sectors.

Letter from the Manager — Aug 2025

August was a positive month for global markets, with S&P and Nasdaq seeing total returns of 2.03% and 1.65%, respectively. The month was also positive for emerging markets (MSCI EM +1.46%), and especially for Latin America (MSCI Latam +8.30%). In the US, weaker labor market data increased the expectation of interest cuts by the Fed, with the probability of a 25 bps cut in September reaching ~ 90%. Jerome Powell's dovish communication in Jackson Hole contributed to this movement; the dollar (DXY) depreciated 2.2% in the month, favoring emerging currencies and reinforcing risk appetite. In Latin America, markets followed the global movement, especially Brazil. The Ibovespa rose 6.3% in reais and 9.4% in dollars, recovering from the July correction. We understand the biggest contributors to positive performance as a mix between greater global risk appetite, a positive earnings season in Brazil, and the potential start of the local monetary easing cycle in the coming months. As we commented in previous months, we expect that the combination of the end of the monetary tightening cycle in Brazil (and the potential beginning of the easing cycle approaching), combined with the beginning of the easing cycle in the USA, substantially increases the chances of a positive scenario for the Brazilian market in the next 6 to 12 Months. We continue to believe in the importance of maintaining a portfolio focused on quality companies, with low leverage and resilience to the macroeconomic scenario. During the month, we continued with our strategy of gradually increasing exposure to cyclical domestic sectors with solid fundamentals, without giving up quality criteria. We continue to look out for opportunities in micro-specific stories.

Letter from the Manager — July 2025

During the month of July, global markets performed well; MSCI World had a total return of 1.31%, while the S&P and Nasdaq had total returns of 2.24% and 3.73%, respectively, both reaching historic highs during the month. Despite the volatility in the news flow, the advance in trade agreements between the US and Europe and the prospect of continued negotiations with China were predominant. In emerging markets, MSCI EM had a total return of 2.01%, largely the result of the performance of Asia (China +4.84%; Taiwan +5.58%; South Korea +3.91%) while Latin America (MSCI Latam) had a negative return of 4.42%, impacted by Brazil -6.85%, in dollars, and Chile -4.92%. The increase in risk aversion in relation to Brazilian assets derived from the announcement of 50% U.S. tariffs on Brazilian exports and sanctions against STF ministers was added to the performance of American assets. During the month, the 10-year U.S. bond opened yield at 14bps and the dollar (DXY) strengthened 3.2%. As a result, the yield on the Brazilian 10-year bond opened 55 bps (ending the month at 14.06%), and the real depreciated 3%, ending the month at R$ 5.60. Finally, the Ibovespa closed at 133 thousand points (-4.17%). In the last week of the month, Copom kept the Selic rate stable at 15%, ending the monetary tightening cycle and with the prospect of maintaining high interest levels for an extended period. Moments of final monetary tightening tend to be positive for the stock market, as discussions migrate from the potential maximum interest level of the cycle to when the period of cuts will begin (currently the price curve starts in January 2026). The combination of the end of the monetary tightening cycle in Brazil combined with the potential start of monetary easing in the USA (potentially in the 2nd half of 2025) increases the chances of a positive scenario for the Brazilian stock market in the next 6-12 months. We continue to believe in the importance of maintaining a portfolio concentrated on quality companies, with low leverage and resilience to the macroeconomic scenario. During the month, we increased exposure to the oil, steel and mining, infrastructure, and capital goods sectors. We continue to look out for opportunities in micro-specific stories.

Letter from the Manager — Jun 2025

The month of June was positive for risky assets, with two main themes having contributed positively: (i) market perception that the trade war between the US vs. China/rest of the world is cooling down and that governments may be close to signing new agreements on tariffs, and; (ii) instability in the Middle East may be on an improving trend after the US and Israel attacks on nuclear facilities in Iran. In the stock market, the S&P and Nasdaq closed at all-time highs with total returns of 5.08% and 6.64% for the month, respectively. Emerging markets also performed well with MSCI EM returning 6.12% and MSCI Latin 6.13%. Locally, the Ibovespa in dollars had a total return of 6.47%, while the index in reais performed 1.33%. In the sovereign debt market, the 10-year U.S. bond closed June with a yield of 4.24% (-17bps in the month), while the DXY (dollar vs. basket of currencies from developed countries) continued to depreciate (-2.5% in the month and 10.9% in the year). Locally, the 10-year bond closed the month with a yield of 13.48%, with a closing rate of 50 bps. In Brazil, Copom raised the Selic rate by 25 bps to 15% p.a. with the prospect of long-term maintenance; the interest curve predicts the start of cuts in January 2026. Moments of final monetary tightening tend to be positive for the stock market, as discussions migrate from the potential maximum interest level of the cycle to when the cutback period will begin. The combination of the end of the monetary tightening cycle in Brazil combined with the potential start of monetary easing in the USA (potentially in the 2nd half of 2025) increases the chances of a positive scenario for the Brazilian stock market in the next 6-12 months. We continue to believe in the importance of maintaining a portfolio concentrated on quality companies, with low leverage and resilience to the macroeconomic scenario. During the month, we reduced the relative exposure to low-income construction companies, and we increased the share of industrial sector stocks and banks. We continue to look out for opportunities in micro-specific stories.

Letter from the Manager — May 2025

Global markets recovered in May, reversing the decline seen in April. The easing of trade tensions between the United States, China and the European Union, with the reduction of tariffs and the delay of new protectionist measures, was the main catalyst. The total return in dollars of the S&P 500 was 6.3% and the Nasdaq, 9.6%, while in emerging markets (MSCI EM) it was 4.3% and 1.7% in Latin America (MSCI Latin). In the fixed income market, the Trump administration's proposal for a new potentially expansionary fiscal package raised concerns about the U.S. fiscal trajectory and the consequent impact on Treasuries, with the 10-year bond opening 24 bps and ending the month at 4.40%. The recent volatility of the American market combined with the potential change in the dollar's valuation trend has benefited the flow of capital to emerging markets. In this context, the flow of foreigners in B3 in the year was R$22.1 billion (R$ 11.6 billion in May), which, in our opinion, has supported the performance of the variable income market in Brazil (Ibovespa + 13.9% in the year). In Brazil, the main topics of the month were macroeconomic, among which we highlight: (i) Copom raised the Selic rate by 50bps to 14.75%, however the more domestic tone led the market to price the end of the monetary tightening cycle, a fact that triggered strong stock performance on the stock exchange and played an important role in the alpha generation of our funds; (ii) IPCA-15 below consensus (0.36 m/m vs. 0.44% consensus), contributing to the prospect of the end of the monetary tightening cycle, and: (iii) announcement of changes in the IOF, a topic that is still evolving and which highlights the current challenge of fiscal balance, especially from the perspective of increasing taxation. The 10-year bond yielded 5bps for the month and ended at 14.02% (once again, the final figure for the month does not capture the intra-month volatility in which the yield fluctuated between 13.85% and 14.20%). We continue to believe in the importance of maintaining a portfolio focused on quality companies, with low leverage and resilience to the macroeconomic scenario. During the month, we continued to reduce exposure relative to the low-income utilities and construction sectors, and increased participation in domestic consumer companies. We continue to look out for opportunities in micro-specific stories.

Letter from the Manager – April 2025

April was marked by strong volatility in global financial markets, driven by the announcement of trade tariffs by the United States. “Liberation Day” introduced a universal 10% tariff, in addition to additional surcharges aimed at countries with which the United States has a trade deficit - resulting, in the most extreme case, in initial rates of 67% for China, which reached 145% in the last update. The end game is still uncertain, but higher rates and lower visibility for investments should negatively impact global activity. The S&P 500 ended the month with a drop of 0.68%, after falling to 11.2% at the worst moment in April, accumulating a devaluation of 5.3% in the year. The Nasdaq rose 0.88% in the month, after falling 11.7% during the period of increased risk aversion, but still accumulates a negative return of 10.3% in 2025. On the other hand, gold appreciated 5.8% in the month, benefiting from increased risk aversion and fears of stagflation. The Trump administration's initial proposals, focusing on twin deficits, significantly impacted the debt market and the dollar. The DXY index fell 4.6% in April, accumulating a devaluation of 8.01% in the year. 10-year treasury interest rates, on the other hand, ended the month practically stable, at 4.17% (down 4 bps), although they fluctuated between 4% and 4.5% over the period - a volatility that is not captured by the month-end data. The devaluation of the dollar and the easing of long interest rates favored capital flows to emerging markets. In Brazil, the Ibovespa increased 3.7% in April (4.4% in USD), ending the month at 135,000 points and accumulating an increase of 12.3% in the year. The real appreciated 0.57% against the dollar, in line with the performance of emerging currencies. As expected, Brazil, as a relatively more closed economy, performed better than other regions in the context of tariffs, being subject to the base rate of 10%. The domestic interest curve closed significantly, with 10-year bonds falling ~100 bps and ending the month with a yield of 14.06%. Market expectations regarding the monetary tightening cycle also adjusted: at the end of March, the curve indicated Selic at 15.2% in July 2025; already at the end of April, it expected the end of the tightening in June, with the rate at 14.7%. This repricing at the short and long vertices of the curve contributed positively to the performance of domestic equities, mainly benefiting our allocation to the utilities sector — currently our main sector exposure. We continue to believe in the importance of maintaining a portfolio concentrated on quality companies, with low leverage and resilience to the macroeconomic scenario. During the month, we marginally reduced exposure relative to the low-income utilities and construction sectors, and increased participation in domestic consumer companies. We remain attentive to opportunities in micro-specific stories.

Letter from the Manager — Mar 2025

Growing uncertainty about U.S. trade and tariff policy and its potential impacts on the economy continued to affect markets in March. Portfolio rotation continued to favor assets in emerging countries, including Brazil, in exchange for the American stock market. The Ibovespa rose 5.9% in the month (and 8.3% in the year), while the S&P fell 4.1% (-4.6% accumulated in 2025). Brazil, being a relatively closed economy, should suffer little impact from Trump's expected announcement of reciprocal tariffs, scheduled for early April. In addition, we have observed an increase in interest in Brazil among foreign investors, resulting in a positive flow to the stock market for the fourth consecutive month. Still in the international field, it is important to mention that the American Central Bank kept the interest rate stable for the second consecutive meeting, citing uncertainties about the economic outlook. The short-term inflation data met market expectations, while the economic activity indicators remained resilient. If, on the one hand, we see a more favorable international scenario for emerging market assets and for the Brazilian stock market, at the domestic level, we see a government without commitment to an austere fiscal policy and concerned about the decline in popularity, according to recent research. As a result, domestic long interest rates remain at high levels, despite the approach of the end of the monetary tightening cycle. The market projects two additional increases of 50 bps by June, resulting in a Selic terminal of 15.25%. The main factors supporting this scenario are a more stable exchange rate (with an appreciation of 8% in the year) and the expected slowdown in the economy. However, the economic stimulus measures that the government intends to announce in the coming months may hinder the disinflation process. As an example, payroll loans for private sector employees were launched this month, with the potential to lower personal credit rates and boost consumption. We believe that it is still essential to maintain a portfolio focused on quality companies, resilient to the economic scenario and with low leverage. We kept our positions focused on utilities, low-income construction companies and sought opportunities in specific micro stories.

Letter from the Manager — Feb 2025

The global scenario continued as the main driver of the markets, with an increase in volatility after new statements by Trump indicated a possible tightening of US trade policy and increased concerns about the slowdown in the American economy. In Brazil, attention was focused on government approval polls, which showed a further deterioration in the president's popularity and raised speculations about when investors will stop focusing on current economic policy to start pricing the possibility of an opposition government in the 2022 elections. In this context, the American S&P 500 index fell 4.3% in the month, while the Brazilian market performed mixed, with the Ibovespa closing close to stability (+0.3%) and the real showing a slight devaluation (-1.2%). Highlight is the Chinese stock market index, which rose 8.7% in the month, driven by the expectation of new economic stimulus. It is still difficult to predict the impact of the Trump administration's new policies on the American economy: increased tariffs on trading partners, a policy of fiscal austerity with the creation of the so-called “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) and tax reduction. The intensification of protectionist rhetoric has generated concern among investors, especially in emerging markets that are more dependent on global trade. In Brazil, the month was marked by a further decline in the government's approval rate, with polls showing an increase in population dissatisfaction, even in regions where the left historically maintained favouritism. This worsening in popularity led the government to adopt a more aggressive discourse regarding economic stimulus measures, rekindling concerns about the commitment to fiscal balance. At the corporate level, Petrobras reported its quarterly results with higher-than-expected capex, which resulted in a lower distribution of dividends in the period. In addition, shares of companies in the retail sector performed negatively after reporting results below investor expectations. Faced with this scenario, we maintain a defensive position in the portfolio, betting on sectors that are less sensitive to the economic cycle and with low leverage. Our main positions remain focused on low-income utilities, banks and construction companies, sectors that we believe offer a more balanced combination of resilience and valuation potential in the medium term.

Our Team

Our team of experts

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André Caldas, CFA, FRM
CIO and Porfolio Manager
Albert Munck
CEO
Gustavo Liberali, CFA, FRM, RAI
Director of Risk and Compliance
André Branco
Director of Operations
João Noronha, CFA, CGA
Portfolio Manager and Analyst
Matheus Efrain
Trader
Fernanda Castilho, CGA
Equities Analyst
Pedro Atra
Equities Analyst
Eric Kruse
Equities Analyst
Cristian Faria
Equities Analyst
Vinicius Pires
Head of Special Situations
Gabriel Locci
Special Situations Analyst
João Menelau
Investor Relations